Waiting out the time just after the goal
We are often asked to make a trigger that trades out a selection (such as a team or a particular score in a match) after one of the teams has scored a goal.
E.g. you first back on the favourite team, and then green up after it scores.
What most bettors miss is that right after the goal (we are talking about 30-40 secs) the market is very unstable and the prices dash up and down, presenting you with little opportunity to secure the profit you would have made if you waited.
Take a look at this Match Odds market an instant after the market turned from Suspended back to In-Play following a goal:
Pay attention to the figures in the red rectangle. The back and lay prices of Syria are way apart, which is a sign of unsettledness.
If you wait less than a minute, the picture will be quite different.
Suppose we want to back on a particular score in Correct Score and green up after a goal.
So we place the initial back bet on 0 - 1:
We will now swicth to Engineer Mode to clearly see how much profit or loss we wil get if we trade out now.
After Syria scores first, the market looks like this:
If we traded out right now, we would end up with a loss of -£0.97.
But if we wait a little and check again, we will be in a much better position:
So our advice is to always add the following condition to any trigger that does anything after a goal:
and Market's Minutes Since Last Goal is greater than 1.0
This tells the trigger to wait for 1 minute after the goal is scored -- usually enough for the prices to get balanced again.
Of course we are talking about more or less high-liquidity markets here. Another good way to check if the market is back on track is to measure the gap between a selection's back and lay prices. In a high-liquidity market this gap should not exceed 10 ticks:
and Selection's Lay Price is equal or less than r_ticks(back_price, 10)
See the example of both conditions working in a trigger file attached below.